Euro: After the crisis is before the crisis

The problems of the eurozone flare up again. Financial difficulty of Ireland and his escape under the European rescue screen releases with market participants by no means reassurance. The euro suffers again from the public finances of the eurozone.

This time Ireland brings the communal currency in the skidding and children’s slides. The load by the crippleded Irish banks makes the country flee under the rescue screen. However, comfortably this becomes by no means. The protective search of Ireland has not calmed the situation. “A point which provides now for uncertainty is the remark of Federal Chancellor Merkel who would like to involve the private believers. But as this should look concrete, she has left open”. The EU summit would be attached for December, before should not be to be counted on purification. The euro remains under pressure. Last month he lost compared with the US dollar in the point more than 6 percent, presently he moves with an euro-US dollar of course relation of about 1.34 further down.

US dollar as an escape currency

The Swiss franc profits from the euro-financial crisis as the sure harbour which revalues compared with the euro. Also the US dollar fulfils this function, although it looks not rosy in the USA also. “The fact that the USA also are in difficulties, does not disturb the market participants before this background”. The relaxation of the US monetary policy has provided at the beginning of November only very briefly for a drawback of the US dollar. Then the US dollar won again after the interest decisions of the EZB and bank of England (gust). The lax US monetary policy was fast checked off and the focus on the market participant lies once more on the fire in the eurozone. “The development of the currencies gets currently a new quality. The euro-weakness is looked by the market participants as a problem of the eurozone and not as a global crisis.” The Swiss franc wins during the past days compared with the euro of about 2 percent on 1,327.

Raw material currencies in request

Before this background the Australian one and the Canadian dollar also move up as an escape currency, because the classical raw material currencies do not suffer. Well developed the Swedish crown also stands there. “The crown would ordinarily depreciate in such a crisis situation. But the Swedish economy is robust, she takes a stronger currency and the difficulties of eurocountry are interpreted just increasingly than internal problems of the monetary union”, explains the economist. Also the Norwegian crown appears solidly in view of the global rest and a rising oil price. The leading level of interest rates lies in Norway at 2 percent. The Norwegian central bank would leave the interest at this level, as long as the global situation remains unsafe.

Japan would want a weaker yen

Also compared with the Japanese currency a light uncertainty, released by bombardment of North Korea of South Korea niches passes island. The yen lost for a short time compared with the US dollar. However, the short vibration does not shake smashed path of Japan from. Japan directs furthermore the attention to an impairment of the yen. The economic performance of Japan has further become overcast. The yen high takes down compared with US dollar and euro. Nevertheless, the analysts of the ten gramms bank absolutely see readiness at the Japanese central bank to go forward with monetary-political instruments against one as a too very felt yen.” The whole economic policy of Japan remains straightened on a yen impairment. We see a high likelyhood that this will assert itself in the medium term in the foreign exchange markets, provided that the FED does not expand her quantitative measures considerably”, write the analysts in her foreign currency report. These measures could be the buying of other state loans.

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