Paradigm change in the currency market

It appears in outlines a change in thinking in the markets.

Above all the expansion of the Quantitative Easing programme of the US central bank let the risk readiness during the last weeks rise on and on. A rally on the stock exchanges and high inflows of capital in the threshold countries were the result. Now this could change. To more and more investors becomes clear that the markets are no one-way street. The unexpectedly strong increase of the inflation rate in China on 4.4 percent has heated up the speculation about other increases in interest rates in China. This could throttle the determining growth engine of the world economy. At the same time more and more threshold countries take measures against the influxes of the speculative capital which threatens to destabilise her financial systems.

„Small dollars“ under sales pressure

The attribution of the excessively high risk readiness in the markets led above all with the raw material currencies like Real, edge, Austral dollar, Canada dollar and New Zealand dollar to sales. At the same time the US dollar increased. AUD/USD is again under the parity, the exchange rate of 1:1 sunk and also NZD/USD fell back after the course increase of the last weeks again. USD / CAD also did not continue his downward trend and asserted itself about the important support, the annual low-pressure area with 1.00 CAD. At short notice the US dollar might increase against three „to small dollars“ still. However, in the medium term these raw material currencies remain asked. Particularly compared with the euro their revaluation trend can continue, because the European single currency suffers currently from the new worries about the constitution of the public finances in some member states. Though thus EUR / AUD has bounced off in the first approach in the present annual low-pressure area of 1.3650 AUD, however, chart the downtrend continues. This is also valid for the exchange rates EUR / CAD and EUR / NZD.

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