Euro falls under the 1,39-dollar brand / Day comment to EUR/USD

The rate of the euro has fallen on Monday in early trade under the brand of 1.39 US dollars.

The European communal currency was traded with 1.3879 dollars. A dollar was worth 0.7204 euros. The European central bank (EZB) had the authoritative course on Friday on 1.4089 (Thursday: 1.4101) dollar settled.

The high-altitude flight of the euro might come to an end according to appraisal of the Commerzbank first. After the latest statements of US-central bank boss Ben Bernanke the other monetary-political relaxation in the USA might be not so strong as from some observers expected. Hence, the latest highest levels of the euro of Friday with 1.4157 dollars might be for the time being no more subject. However, a big trend turn in favour of the dollar is not to be expected before the interest decision of the US central bank on the 3rd of November in view of the high insecurity

Day comment to EUR/USD
On the last Friday EUR/USD under big volatility had to accept high losses, although first a today’s high could be reached with 1.4157. In the centre of the interest stood the speech of FED president Ben Bernanke who announced, however, only well-known repeated and therefore no information about the start of the expansion of loan purchases. He referred once more to the development of future economic data which are decisively for the FED actions. As a result EUR/USD had to pocket violent losses and fell on the day low-pressure area with 1.3948 and also in today’s Asian trade the downturn further continues. The US data published on Friday were mixed. Thus the retail trade turnovers could rise in September by 0.6%, while the consumer price index rose about 0.1%. Clearly positively the empire State index with 15.73 points has fallen out to expected 6.0 points. The US stocks rose in August with 0.6% also about the expectations of 0.5% during Michigan sentiment index with 67.9 points under the expectations of 69.2 points remained.

Now the before still unequivocal indicator situation has become overcast. Now the MACD gives a sales signal and also as the first trend follower the FXdB-Trendwalk points a decreasing intensity. The PTP would jump topically with quotations under 1.3836 also on short. Meanwhile, the Up line of the Aroon still takes down with respectable 85. All together the indicators indicate with it a correction.

Also today are ready a row of important US data for the publication. The TIC data at 13:00 UTC which were announced with 63.7 billion USD start. Then further it handles 13:15 UTC with the industrial production which should remain consistently with 0.2%. Then at 14:00 UTC the NAHB flat market index gives a topical state to the property market. The consensus estimate sees the index in October with 14 points, after in the previous month another 13 points were announced.

Now for EUR/USD a correction which already appears in outlines on indicator side could be carried out after the words Bernankes on Friday. The expectations in the FED are clearly screwed off currently, because still a confirmation of the monetary-political relaxation is pending and the question is not cleared after the start appointment yet. Currently the worry spreads under market participants that the expectations were too high and the aforesaid relaxations long time ago priced are. This changes nothing in the long-term appraisal to the dollar, in the short-term area the thing still looks different and particularly on the dependence on economic data it is further expelled. Should these fall out similarly positively like at last, the opinion might assert itself in the market that the time has not come for FED activities yet. Because the present breather is also supported by chart side, today we sell EUR/USD with 1.3890 with a security with 1.3920 and a course aim of 1.3810.

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